Best The Art of Thinking Clearly By Rolf Dobelli
Read The Art of Thinking Clearly By Rolf Dobelli
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Ebook About A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t.Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.Book The Art of Thinking Clearly Review :
I read Nassim Taleb's Fooled By Randomness and then started reading this book. It felt like deja vu in the first few chapters since so much content has been lifted directly from FBR. I didn't do word-for-word comparisons, but others have. The plagiarism was so strong, I had to go research it to make sure I wasn't fooling myself. Sure enough, Dobelli has been outed as a plagiarist. I got through 30 chapters or so before I started feeling too guilty to continue.I can't even recommend this if you want a cliff notes version of Taleb, Ariely, Kahneman, et. al. Just read the originals. They go way more in-depth and properly reference the work of others. In the 1960s psychologists began to examine scientifically, how people think, decide and take action. The result, explains the author of this book, Rolf Dobelli, was a “theory of irrationality that states: thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error.” This, they found, was true of all people, including the highly intelligent, resulting in everyone falling into the same cognitive errors.More interestingly, it appears we all “systematically err in the same direction.” If this is indeed true, it means we all make predictable mistakes. If it is true, and it appears to be, we should be able to fix at least some of them and avoid making these errors in our lives.Dobelli has gathered 99 errors common to us all. He provides short, amusing and pithy insights into their form and causes. This has not made his life error free, he reports. However, “to make things simple, I have set myself the following rules: in situations where the possible consequences are large, I try to be as reasonable and rational as possible when choosing… In situations where the consequences are small I forget about rational optimisation and let my intuition take over.”This book is a useful compendium of error. Reading this book will certainly increase one’s awareness of possible errors, which will lead to better decisions. To illustrate, I have chosen five errors of the Dobelli’s 99.Social ProofYou are roaming the Serengeti some 50,000 years ago, and your hunter-gather companions suddenly break into a desperate run away from some disturbance. What should you do? Mindlessly follow, or consider the possibility that it is a gazelle rather than a predator. Having seen a thoughtful companion become some animal’s lunch you run with the crowd.“Social proof” is the legacy of this herd instinct that dictates that individuals are behaving correctly when they act the same as other people. Social proof is behind stock market bubbles, as well as stock market stampedes. It is no different in the worlds of fashion, management techniques, and diets.Social proof informs even simple decision such as selecting a restaurant in an area with which you are unfamiliar. It seems sensible to choose the one that is full over a poorly patronised one.Novelist W. Somerset Maugham put the error of social proof succinctly: ‘If 50 million people say something foolish, it is still foolish.’Sunk Cost FallacyThe film was awful. After an hour, Dobelli whispered to his wife: ‘Come on, let’s go home.’ She replied : ‘No way. We’re not throwing away $ 30.’ The $ 30 is not reason to stay, that would be a thinking error. The money was been spent, and will not be returned. This is an example of the sunk cost error.So often in business, there is the sense that having invested so much, it would be wrong to stop now. Stopping now, makes the investment seem a mistake. The sunk cost fallacy is most dangerous when we have invested time, money, energy, commitment or love in something.The need for consistency drives this type of irrational behaviour. Deciding to cancel the project before it is completed is to admit that we had made a mistake.Sometimes the consequences of this thinking error costs lives as when America extended their involvement in the Vietnam War. Their thinking: ‘We’ve already sacrificed so much for this war; it would be a mistake to give up now.’ReciprocityPsychologist Robert Cialdini has studied the phenomenon of reciprocity and concluded that people have discomfort feeling they are indebted to another person.Dobelli offers this example: “A supplier of screws invites a potential customer to join him at a big sports game. A month later, it’s time to order screws. The desire not to be in debt is so strong that the buyer gives in and places an order with his new friend.”This phenomenon has a long history. When primitive man’s food supplies were subject to high fluctuations, he needed others to share their food with him. When he killed an animal too large to eat in one day, he would share the meat with others in his group. Doing this would ensure that they share their meat with him when he is short.When approached in the supermarket, with an offer of a taste of wine, a chunk of cheese or a handful of olives, Dobelli advises to refuse the offer. The error of reciprocity has led many to ending up a pantry full of goods they do not even like.Contrast EffectWe judge something to be beautiful, expensive or large only if we have something ugly, cheap or small to compare it to.Experiments indicate that people will walk an extra ten minutes to save $ 10 on food. The same people, however would not walk ten minutes to save $ 10 on a $ 1,000 suit. The whole category of discount business is only viable because of this error, Dobelli claims.In the investment arena, the error leads people to believe a share is good value because it is 50% below the peak price. The share price is what it is, and comparison is irrelevant. All that matters is whether the share goes up or down in the future.The contrast effect also plays out in the social arena. If you are dating it is not prudent to double date with your supermodel friend. This makes you appear less attractive than you really are!Chauffeur KnowledgeAccording to Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner, there are two types of knowledge. “Real knowledge” is what people have when they have invested time and effort to understanding a topic. “Chauffeur knowledge” is the result of learning how to put on a show. Warren Buffett uses the phrase, ‘circle of competence’ to avoid this error. ‘You have to stick within what I call your circle of competence. You have to know what you understand and what you don’t understand. It’s not terribly important how big the circle is. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is.’It is so easy to not confuse the company spokesperson, the newscaster, and the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge. You can recognize the difference because the true experts know what they know and what they do not know.This book is a “must read!” We cannot do enough to protect ourselves from our thinking errors and the author sites 99 such errors. Much of the material in this book can be found scattered elsewhere. The value of this book is that the information is in one place.Readability Light --+-- SeriousInsights High --+-- LowPractical High --+-- Low*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works. Read Online The Art of Thinking Clearly Download The Art of Thinking Clearly The Art of Thinking Clearly PDF The Art of Thinking Clearly Mobi Free Reading The Art of Thinking Clearly Download Free Pdf The Art of Thinking Clearly PDF Online The Art of Thinking Clearly Mobi Online The Art of Thinking Clearly Reading Online The Art of Thinking Clearly Read Online Rolf Dobelli Download Rolf Dobelli Rolf Dobelli PDF Rolf Dobelli Mobi Free Reading Rolf Dobelli Download Free Pdf Rolf Dobelli PDF Online Rolf Dobelli Mobi Online Rolf Dobelli Reading Online Rolf DobelliBest Urban Tantra, Second Edition: Sacred Sex for the Twenty-First Century By Barbara Carrellas
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